Doubt On Poor Retail Figures

Latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show that retail turnover for December fell by 0.8%(seasonally adjusted), well below market expectations of a 1% rise. However, as advised by CBA’s Research Department, the extent of the seasonal adjustment on the December data is revealed by the 27% rise in nominal terms which was converted to an 0.8% fall, implying that a nominal rise of 27.8% was required to reach a zero outcome for the month.

It is expected that January’s data will fully compensate for the December fall and support reports from most retailers of record trading over the Christmas/New Year period.

Upon recently receiving the credit card bill for the festive season this writer can personally vouch for quite a few happy retailers.

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