November rate rise almost certain

With the September quarter Consumer Price Index rising by 0.7 per cent, and the underlying rate of inflation running at 1 per cent, a rate rise when the Reserve Bank meets in another two weeks seems a certainty. Before the CPI announcement markets had put the probability of the cash rate increasing from 6.5 per cent to 6.75 per cent in November at 60 per cent but this has now shot up to 83 per cent. If the RBA does lift rates it will be the first time this has happened during an election campaign.

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