fixed-rate-expiry-tsunami-graphic-methodology-assumptions
  • Expiry schedules were sourced from each of the big four banks' half-year or full-year results (specifically their investor presentations - CBA, WBC, NAB, ANZ).
  • To gain a representation of the total market's fixed rate expiry schedule, the big four banks were assumed to represent 75% of the home loan market (as per APRA's banking data).
  • For simplicity's sake, all H1/H2 reporting was assumed to represent the calendar year (i.e. 6 months to June/December). In reality, both NAB and ANZ's reports use 6 months to March/Sept.
  • The estimated number of home loans expiring in the half was derived by taking the value for the half and dividing it by the average expiring fixed-rate home loan value of $397.7k. This was then divided by six to get the average monthly number of fixed-rate home loans expiring
  • The 'average' expiring fixed-rate home loan size of $397.7k is based on the RBA's estimate that 880,000 fixed-rate home loans totalling $350 billion will expire in 2023.

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