Markets Await Big Week Of Data
Whilst this week has been relatively slow in terms of financial data next week is a completely different story.
For starters the central focus will be on Tuesday’s RBA Board meeting. We believe that the RBA will probably leave monetary policy on hold for the time being until a clearer picture as to the ongoing level of growth is available. This is despite inflation remaining low and the AUD appearing to have stabilised.
The data needed for this “clearer picture” is likely to come next week in the form of the following data to be released on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday :
Aust Stocks and Sales QIII
Aust October International Trade
Aust Current Account Deficit QIII
Aust Net Foreign Debt QIII
Aust Net Exports
Aust Retail Trade October
Aust Building Approvals October
Aust GDP QIII
According to Commonwealth Bank Research they expect Wednesdays QIII GDP data to show the economy running at close to 4%pa confirming that there is no great rush to cut local rates.
However other data such as Retail Trade and Building Approvals are expected to show a fall or flatten as is growth from stock movements. This points to an expected slowdown in 1999 however with the RBA conscious of the effects of import prices on inflation they are likely to wait for QIV CPI data before reassessing the current level of rates.
There now seems to be a general consensus amongst analysts that the RBA won’t move rates until early next year. However, given most analysts history in predicting what the RBA will do we would not be surprised to see the RBA move rates before Christmas, if only to prove most analysts wrong yet again.