RBA Rate Updates

Interest rate forecast: Bushfires will spark another rate cut from RBA

For most city dwelling Australians, the bushfires affect only their air quality and views. But the bushfires are devastating families, communities, farms and businesses in vast areas of Australia. The Reserve Bank is increasingly expected to respond with an immediate rate cut in February.

International markets are also noticing what is going on in Australia. The Australian dollar has fallen one cent in value against the US dollar as the bushfires continue to burn across four states and grip the world’s media.

Foreign exchange investors are now bailing out of the Aussie dollar, effectively betting that Australia’s 2019/20 bushfires will damage the economy. Gains by the Australian dollar over the last six months now look fragile.

Analysts are telling international investors to get out of the Australian currency and this is increasingly expected to spur the Reserve Bank towards cutting rates again, as soon as 4th February.

The fires could hit consumer sentiment, spending, tourism, business investment, productivity and primary industries in affected regions, also  weighing heavily on RBA Board member’s minds.

Another cut in rates would provide a small stimulus in difficult economic times and would, in turn, encourage a lower Aussie dollar, benefiting primary industry exporters in particular.


(Chart of A$ vs US$ over 6 months from macrotrends.com).

Bushfires push the Aussie Dollar lower

The Australian dollar is trading this morning (Tuesday 14 January) at just over 69 US cents, down from over US 70 cents on 31 December 2019.

Forex strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, Terence Wu, has told his clients to short-sell the Aussie dollar suggesting it will keep falling to just over US 67 cents.

“The fires are definitely an additional weight on the economy, and should lower the barriers for an RBA rate cut,” Terence Wu told Guardian Australia yesterday.

Will the RBA cut interest rates in February?

Markets are still undecided about whether the RBA will cut official interest rates in Australia in February 2020. However, in recent days, prices are increasingly indicating a growing chance of a cut.

Yesterday, rates futures markets had priced in a 47 per cent chance of a February rate cut to 0.50 per cent, up from 42 per cent the previous trading day.

Rates futures market trading over the Christmas and New Year’s period has fluctuated significantly. Traders had priced in a 60 per cent chance of a rate cut as recently as last Wednesday, the 8th January.

The fires are a factor encouraging a February rate cut from the RBA said National Australia Bank’s head of foreign exchange trading, Ray Attrill, who told Guardian Australia that he expects a RBA rate cut to 0.50 per cent in February.

“It’s certainly been a factor and that has been reflected in money market pricing.”

Bushfire insurance costs climb

Direct costs of the bushfires include the $700 million insurance payout currently being processed by Australia’s insurers and the $2 billion bing spent by government.

Crisis talks between the Australia’s insurers and the government have produced a commitment to work together and centralise rebuilding works. The insurers have committed to dealing with claims from homeowners, almost 9,000 already, compassionately and quickly.

The Insurance Council (ICA) and senior executives from IAG, Suncorp. QBE, Allianz, Zurich, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac met last week with Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.

“The Insurance Council reassured Treasurer Frydenberg that the industry is harnessing all resources to help customers,” said Rob Whelan from the ICA.

“The industry welcomed in principle the Commonwealth’s $2 billion commitment towards recovery efforts.”

Rob Whelan reiterated that insurers are dealing compassionately and sensitively with customers.

The ICA reported that insurers have received 8985 claims since September from New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

Many more claims are expected to come in coming weeks. Insurance losses stand at $700 million.

The Insurance Council’s disaster hotline is 1800 734 621.

The Reserve Bank’s official Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) is currently set at an all-time low of 0.75 per cent. The board of the RBA next meets to decide on monetary policy (rates) settings on Tuesday 4th February.

Keep up to date with the latest property market outlook at InfoChoice.

Keep up to date with the latest trending financial news about Australia’s banks and other financial institutions at InfoChoice.

Compare 1800 home loans from Australia’s banks, credit unions and other lenders at InfoChoice.

This article is not financial advice.

InfoChoice compares financial products from 145 banks, credit unions and other financial institutions in Australia. InfoChoice does not compare every product in the market. Some institutions may have a commercial partnership with InfoChoice. Rates are provided by partners and taken from financial institutions websites. We believe all information to be accurate on the date published. InfoChoice strives to update and keep information as accurate as possible.

The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. Do not interpret the listing order as an endorsement or recommendation from us.  You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. If you or someone you know is in financial stress, contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.


InfoChoice Interest Rate Outlook for January 2020.

Markets vote for a February rate cut

Futures markets are increasingly expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates to a new historic low in February 2020.

The RBA has been on its traditional summer break in January. The board of the RBA will next meet on Tuesday the 4th of February 2020. Currently the official cash rate in Australia is set at 0.75 per cent. (charts from RBA.gov.au)

The ASX RBA Rate Indicator, based on rates futures market trading, has risen to a 53% expectation of a rate cut to 0.50% in February, up from 35% on 23 December 2019.

The Australian dollar has been fairly strong against the US dollar for more than a year broadly within a band between about 69 and 71 and US cents.

Within that range, the Aussie has recovered ground against the US dollar in November and December 2019, after falling consistently throughout the first half of last year. The Aussie Dollar bottomed out mid year in the 67 cent range.

New unemployment data will inform the next RBA decision. The last quarterly numbers released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics had 5.3 per cent of Australian adults unemployed. Underemployment remained steady at 8.4 per cent and is trending up slightly ( 0.1%) in one year.

With markets expecting a cut, perhaps only big unexpected good news on the unemployment front could stop the RBA from a February rate cut.

RBA focuses on owner-occupier home loan repayments

What does the RBA take into consideration when deciding on interest rates?

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s primary goals are to try and achieve zero or close to zero unemployment in Australia and low inflation around 2 to 3 per cent.

Every month the RBA board looks at the international and domestic economy and forecasts for the future to try and determine the best setting for interest rates – to stimulate demand or restrict credit.

At the last meeting of the RBA board, in December 2019, the members discussed how rate cuts in 2019 had flowed through to lower borrowing rates for households. 

Average variable mortgage rates actually being paid by ordinary Aussie borrowers declined by 0.65 percentage points in 6 months from mid 2019, said the board.

If that is the average, some Aussies found savings well in excess of that, presumably.

A 0.65 per centre rate reduction on a home loan can reduce monthly repayments by more than $100 on a $300,000, 25 year, no fee mortgage according to the InfoChoice Home Loan Comparison  Calculator.

Competition among lenders for high-quality borrowers remains strong said the RBA and households continue to switch away from interest-only loans to principal-and-interest loans – with lower interest rates. 

Owner occupiers are coming back to housing markets said the RBA but investor loan sales are still in decline.

Are you paying more than you need to be on your home loan?

Only a small share of Australian home loan borrowers have actively adjusted their scheduled mortgage repayments, following multiple  reductions in interest rates during 2019, the RBA board noted in December.

That means that while their lender reduced their minimum required repayments, most borrowers did not actively reduce their actual repayments to match. While most borrowers are consequently ahead on their repayments, saving interest and being responsible, they are paying more than they need to be paying.

Some borrowers may not not realise they can lower their repayments when their lender cuts their interest rates for existing borrowers.

Most lenders cut interest rates multiple times in 2019 following three rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

This habit of not reducing repayments following rate cuts is “consistent with historical experience” said the RBA board but it doesn’t mean families are getting rid of their debt.

Even over the longer term, as interest rates had decline, borrowers have not been paying down their home loans more quickly than in the past said the RBA board. 

So that may mean that owner occupiers are topping up their available credit level with bigger homes, bigger loans, refinancing debts from holidays and cars into their loans and managing their affairs with their loans and debts under their available limits.

Mortgage payments, as a share of aggregate household income, have remained steady over recent years, noted the RBA board.

That could indicate that homeowners are keeping their debts and using them as a tool for spending, credit, cash flow and savings. Rate cuts from the Reserve Bank are just another factor in the decision making by families about where they should move their available revenue – debts, spending, bills, investments or savings.

Compare 1800 home loans from Australia’s banks, credit unions and other lenders at InfoChoice.

Keep up to date with trending financial news and the latest property market outlook at InfoChoice.

This article is not financial advice. Seek personal professional advice before making financial decisions.

The products compared in this website and this article are chosen from a range of offers available to us and are not representative of all the products available in the market and influenced by a range of factors including interest rates, product costs and commercial and sponsorship arrangements

InfoChoice compares financial products from 145 banks, credit unions and other financial institutions in Australia. InfoChoice does not compare every product in the market. Some institutions may have a commercial partnership with InfoChoice. Rates are provided by partners and taken from financial institutions websites. We believe all information to be accurate on the date published. InfoChoice strives to update and keep information as accurate as possible.

The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. Do not interpret the listing order as an endorsement or recommendation from us.  You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. If you or someone you know is in financial stress, contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.


What is quantitative easing?

The Reserve Bank has set interest rates at an all-time record low of just 0.75 per cent. The RBA board will not meet again to decide on rates until February 2020.

The governor of the RBA, Dr Philip Lowe has said recently that the central bank may cut rates again, perhaps twice but will not go beyond 0.25 per cent.

Below that level, the RBA will look at alternative policy options to stimulate demand in the economy.

Those alternatives are often referred to as quantitative easing.

You’ve probably heard of it but you may still be asking yourself what quantitative easing is. Many people understand it as money printing, but it’s not as simple as that.

What does quantitative easing mean?

QE is when a country’s central bank increases the amount of money available within the system or economy. New money has to be created, which is where the “printing money” idea comes from, and then introduced into the economy, but it has to be done within a set process and in response to adverse economic events.

Financial crises happen occasionally and they can lead to unstable prices and interest rates, as well as inflation, deflation and even recession. Countries have a few weapons against these crises and their outcomes, with their central banks deciding what to do, how to do it and when. If a situation is deemed to be serious enough, then more controversial policies can be brought into play. QE is seen as controversial and also something of a big gun.

Why does the RBA raise and cut interest rates?

All countries have at the heart of their money systems their central bank; in Australia, it’s the Reserve Bank of Australia. This bank manages the nation’s currency by keeping inflation as low as possible and by striving to keep the prices of goods and services stable.

A monetary policy is the set of strategies designed and used by a central bank to control and manage the country’s money supply. Policies are usually either expansionary (low interest rates) or contractionary (high interest rates), depending on the biggest concerns of the day.

If there’s high unemployment and low levels of capital investment then the central bank will use expansionary policies to kickstart economic growth. If there’s too much inflation, then the central bank will go contractionary. The bank will seek to increase or decrease (expand or contract) the domestic money supply to keep the economy active.

What are the “traditional levers” central banks use?

The more traditional ways of managing the country’s money supply include buying and selling government bonds, purchasing private sector debt and moving interbank interest rates. Government bonds are loans to the government and are considered low risk and expansionary because the government uses the money in the community. Large companies and banks also issue bonds.

Sometimes negative interest rates are introduced, but this is quite rare and it means that lenders are paying borrowers to borrow! Most of the time these methods work, but when economies are under a lot of stress, QE is brought in instead.

The process of quantitative easing

If a central bank decides to bring in QE, then the first step is to create new money. No physical money is created (or printed), though; it’s created as balance sheet credits, AKA “central bank reserves”. These reserves are kept by the central bank until it decides how to put the reserves into circulation.

One way to introduce the reserves into the economy is to make large asset purchases from the public and private sectors. Buying government – issued bonds, corporate bonds and similar assets on behalf of the central bank is the route by which the new capital enters circulation.

The central bank can also increase the money supply by issuing loans directly to commercial banks. These new central reserves are passed over to the commercial banks to lend to private sector clients. This stimulates economic growth – businesses open, grow, hire more staff and so on as a result of this increased lending.

It looks controversial, but the aims of QE are very basic and simple. It aims to encourage economic growth and positive activity by making more capital available to the credit market. It also encourages lending by ensuring low interbank interest rates.

Has QE ever been used in Australia?

No, Australia has never used QE, but it may well do towards the end of 2019 or the very beginning of 2020. The RBA has lowered the cash rate to historically low levels and yet economic growth has stalled in recent months. Usually, lowering interest rates encourages economic activity because it costs less for individuals and businesses to borrow money.

When there’s cheaper credit available, enterprises start up and grow and unemployment comes down. In most of Europe the unemployment rate is around three per cent, but Australia’s jobless rate is hovering around five per cent. Even a drop in the cash rate to 0.75 per cent hasn’t created new jobs, so the next move on the part of the RBA is probably a round of QE. This could be a better alternative to lowering the cash rate even further, as eventually the RBA will run out of road and Australia could see negative interest rates. Very low or negative rates discourage savers and can lead to a lack of care among businesses – they’re being paid to borrow, so might go overboard.

Could QE be the answer to Australia’s current stagnation?

The simple answer is that there is no one simple answer to a complex and sometimes unnerving economic situation. Different sectors and even different economists will disagree on the subject and on how effective they think QE is.

Fans of QE, however, see it as a handy tool for kickstarting or rejuvenating a flagging economy. If there’s serious reluctance to reducing interest rates further and if unemployment and growth are problematic, pouring more capital into an economy can get things moving. The resulting devaluation of a currency is also a good thing, according to many economists, as it can lead to more exports and international trade.

Keep up to date with the latest property market outlook at InfoChoice.

Compare home loans from Australia’s banks and other lenders.

The products compared in this article are chosen from a range of offers available to us and are not representative of all the products available in the market and influenced by a range of factors including interest rates, product costs and commercial and sponsorship arrangements

InfoChoice compares financial products from 145 banks, credit unions and other financial institutions in Australia. InfoChoice does not compare every product in the market. Some institutions may have a commercial partnership with InfoChoice. Rates are provided by partners and taken from financial institutions websites. We believe all information to be accurate on the date published. InfoChoice strives to update and keep information as accurate as possible.

The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. Do not interpret the listing order as an endorsement or recommendation from us.  You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. If you or someone you know is in financial stress, contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.



RBA Australian Interest Rate Update 3 December 2019

RBA leaves rates at 0.75%

The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the Official Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 0.75 per cent. The RBA board met today, Tuesday 3 December and announced no change to the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR). ASX interest rates futures markets had priced in a 9 per cent expectation of a cut in December

The governor of the RBA, Dr Philip Lowe gave an upbeat assessment of the economy.

“After a soft patch in the second half of last year, the Australian economy appears to have reached a gentle turning point,” said Dr Lowe.

“The central scenario is for growth to pick up gradually to around 3 per cent in 2021.

“The low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, the upswing in housing prices and a brighter outlook for the resources sector should all support growth.”

Unemployment is expected to remain above 5 per cent until 2021 said Dr Lowe while inflation may pick up to around 2 per cent in 2020/21.

Housing markets are turning around, led by Sydney and Melbourne said Dr Lowe 

“Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.”

Dr Lowe said the RBA board wanted to wait and see what the effects of previous rate cuts will be on the Australian economy.

“The Board decided to hold the cash rate steady at this meeting while it continues to monitor developments, including in the labour market.

“It was reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target.

“The Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed.”

Despite the pause in RBA rate cuts, banks, credit unions and other lenders are still slicing rates and adjusting deals.

Borrowers can now lock in a fixed mortgage rate under 3 per cent for up to five years.

“There are now twenty-eight home loans with advertised fixed five-year rates under three per cent listed on InfoChoice,”said Vadim Taube, CEO of leading Australian financial comparison site InfoChoice.com.au.

“A standout in the fixed rate market is UBank’s 2.69% pa (comparison rate 3.19% pa) for three years,” said Vadim Taube.

The products compared in this article are chosen from a range of offers available to us and are not representative of all the products available in the market and influenced by a range of factors including interest rates, product costs and commercial and sponsorship arrangements

InfoChoice compares financial products from 145 banks, credit unions and other financial institutions in Australia. InfoChoice does not compare every product in the market. Some institutions may have a commercial partnership with InfoChoice. Rates are provided by partners and taken from financial institutions websites. We believe all information to be accurate on the date published. InfoChoice strives to update and keep information as accurate as possible.

The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. Do not interpret the listing order as an endorsement or recommendation from us.  You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. If you or someone you know is in financial stress, contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.


RBA Australian Interest Rate Update 21 November 2019

RBA prepared to take rates closer to zero

Interest rates could go even lower as the board of the Reserve Bank mulls over how to kick start the Australian economy, without much success so far.

Currently markets have priced in a 31 per cent chance of a rate cut of 0.25 percentage points to 0.50 per cent from the Reserve Bank at its next board meeting on Tuesday 3 December.

The RBA was very tempted to announce a rate cut in November, minutes of the previous board meeting reveal.

“The Board agreed that a case could be made to ease monetary policy at this meeting,” read the minutes released yesterday.

“But that the most appropriate approach would be to maintain the current stance of monetary policy and to make another full assessment once more evidence of the effects of the earlier monetary easing had become available.”

Further rate cuts could also undermine public confidence in the economy, suggested the board.

While lower interest rates are supporting the economy by lowering the exchange rate, lifting house prices and giving borrowers higher cash flows, any more rate cuts could have negative effects on savers and confidence said the RBA board.

Savings account and term deposit rate cuts have totalled between 0.60 and 0.70 percentage points on average, as the RBA lowered official rates by 0.75 percentage points in three cuts since June.

One quarter of all deposits held by Australians in banks is now earning between 0 and 0.50 percentage points. Most deposits are still earning 1 per cent or above said the RBA.

Home loan rates have fallen about 0.60 percentage points in total since the RBA started cutting rates in June.

The Sydney and Melbourne housing markets continue to strengthen said the RBA board while housing market conditions remain weak in Perth and Darwin. Sydney and Melbourne housing prices have been trending higher since June 2019 with auction volumes and clearance rates at relatively high levels.

Despite improving conditions in property markets, residential building activity is not growing said the RBA.

“The risks to growth from dwelling investment were tilted to the downside,” said the RBA board.

Residential building approvals declined in the September quarter and were more than 20 per cent lower over the year. Meanwhile commercial building activity is increasing as is mining related activity. Conditions remain tough for farmers though, said the RBA board and the outlook for rural exports has been downgraded.

The unemployment rate is 5.2 per cent and is predicted to fall, slowly, to just under 5 per cent over the next two years.

Global financial markets are “signalling a decline in pessimism” said the RBA but retail sales declined in Australia during the three months to September 30 despite tax and rate cuts.

Weighing up all these factors, the RBA board decided to wait for more information before moving rates again. They also issued some guidance for the future. The board said it is “reasononable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates would be required” and that the RBA is still “prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed.”

The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. Do not interpret the listing order as an endorsement or recommendation from us.  You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. If you or someone you know is in financial stress, contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.


RBA Australian Interest Rate Update 13 November 2019

The end of rate cuts?

Rate cuts are about to be abandoned by the RBA as a policy tool, in favour of what some economists call ‘printing money,’ according to plenty of speculation this week by leading Australian economists.

“Unconventional Monetary Policy: Some Lessons from Overseas” will be the theme of the next upcoming speech by the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Dr Philip Lowe. The announcement of this speech has led to some to proclaim the end of the rate cutting cycle and the start of printing money.

Traditional, conventional monetary policy is the use of interest rates to influence the supply of money in the economy. Fiscal policies, like tax cuts and budget spending, can also be used by governments to inject money into the economy.

‘Unconventional monetary policy’ is a reference to Quantitative Easing (QE), a policy of providing money in the economy to stimulate demand. Dr Lowe will outline his thoughts on Quantitative Easing, sometimes known as printing money, at an annual dinner of business economists in Sydney in two weeks.

The confirmation of Dr Lowe’s speech on QE has led to widespread speculation that the RBA will stop cutting interest rates and implement QE soon. 0.5 per cent is thought to be the lowest rate setting the RBA is prepared to contemplate with the RBA’s current rate setting just above that at 0.75 per cent.

Australian fiscal and monetary policy makers have never before seen conditions like these. How they respond is a matter of intense speculation and plenty of advice. Commonwealth Bank economist Gareth Aird said quantitative easing is a policy that has significant downsides.

“There are a raft of other policy options available to stimulate aggregate demand, “said Gareth Aird.

“Other options generally fall under the umbrella of “fiscal policy” including tax cuts, more infrastructure spending and more government recurrent expenditure.”

HSBC’s chief economist Paul Bloxham shares that view, that the RBA has taken monetary policy as far as it can go, while fiscal policy has not been fully utilised.

“As we have pointed out repeatedly recently, we think fiscal policy makes more sense than pushing monetary policy to its limits.”

Quantitative Easing is expected to push the value of the Australian dollar down, a development the RBA may welcome to make Australian exports more competitive.

The RBA is due to meet again on the first Tuesday of December to decide on interest rate settings. Futures market trading over the last week indicates very low expectations of an interest rate cut in December. The confirmation of the subject matter of Dr Lowe’s next speech may indicate that the rate cuts are now over.

Meanwhile more lenders have taken variable home loan rates under three per cent per annum for owner -occupiers. The lowest rates now available for retail home loan borrowers are around 2.7 per cent pa.

Twenty lowest (variable comparison rate) home loans listed on InfoChoice for owner occupiers (10/11/19)

Compare home loan rates from Australia’s banks and other lenders at InfoChoice.

The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. If you or someone you know is in financial stress, contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.

Notes:

Rates are headline rates at the time of publishing, not comparison rates, fees not included.

Rates based on owner-occupier, variable rate, principal and interest 25-year, $300,000 loan amount with a package.

Comparison rate is based on a secured loan of $150,000 over the term of 25 years.

WARNING: These comparison rates apply only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and costs savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan


RBA Australian Interest Rate Update 6 November 2019

“A gentle turning point has been reached” – RBA keeps rates at 0.75%  

Official interest rates in Australia have been kept on hold at 0.75 per cent for November. Yesterday, the governor of the Reserve Bank said positive economic signs are emerging in Australia and globally.

“A gentle turning point appears to have been reached,” said the governor’s statement yesterday.

“The low level of interest rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing spending on infrastructure, the upswing in housing prices in some markets and a brighter outlook for the resources sector should all support growth.”

However, uncertainty caused by weak income growth and consumer spending could weigh down growth, said the governor of the RBA, Dr Philip Lowe.

Dr Lowe said recent rate cuts are working to support economic conditions in Australia.

“Easing of monetary policy since June is supporting employment and income growth.

The governor repeated his advice from October and September that low rates are here to stay for a while yet.

“It’s reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to reach full employment and achieve the inflation target.

Dr Lowe said the RBA Board “is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed.”

Many economists are predicting the RBA will cut rates one more time to 0.50 per cent, in December 2019 or February 2020.

“The outlook for the Australian economy is much the same as we have experienced for the past five years,” economist Callam Pickering from Indeed told The New Daily yesterday, “Below average growth and an elevated unemployment rate.”

“We are not out of the woods yet.”

Unless the federal government delivers stimulus into the economy the RBA will again cut rates closer to zero said Mr Pickering.

BIS Oxford Economics senior economist Sean Langcake said “there will likely be another rate cut in early 2020.”

Banks and other lenders are continuing to announce rate cuts to variable and fixed rate home loan products. There are now 18 variable rate home loan products (OO, P&I) with rates under 3 per cent.

Fixed rates are also continuing to come down. It is now possible for a borrower to lock in sub-3 per cent rates for up to five years.

Low fixed-rate home loan rates now listed on InfoChoice 3/11/19

Lender Fixed Term Rate % pa Comparison rate % pa
UBank 1 year UHomeLoan Fixed (OO, P&I) 2.74 3.33
Well Home Loans 2 year Well Balanced Fixed 2.68 2.84
UBank 3 years UHomeLoan Fixed (OO, P&I) 2.69 3.19
St George / Bank of Melb 4 years Fixed rate Advantage (LVR< 60%, OO, P&I) 2.84 3.63
Citibank 5 years Fixed Rate Loan OOC 2.74 3.26

To fix or not to fix? – that is the question …

With rates so low, the question for many borrowers is: Is it time to fix rates or stay with variable rates?

Should you set and fix your interest rates at the lowest figure the bank is willing to lend, or continue to gamble on variable rates?

With the RBA’s rate set at 0.75 per cent and the likelihood of a further cut next year, variable rates seem like not much of a gamble at all.

You can compare fixed interest rates here and variable rates here.

Demand for fixed rate home loans remains stable and has done so since July. Fixed rate home loans account for 14% of all home loans written throughout the month of September.

“Borrowers can lock in sub-3 per cent rates until 2024,” said Infochoice CEO Vadim Taube.

“Five-year fixed rates with advertised rates under 3 per cent pa are now available.

“And there are 18 variable home loans for owner-occupiers starting with a two and that number will continue to expand.

“If your loan is charging you 3.5 or 4.0 or more per annum, you are not getting anywhere near the lowest rate deal now available,” says Vadim Taube.


RBA Australian Interest Rate Update 29 October 2019

Futures markets do not expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates on Melbourne Cup Day, 5th November 2019.

Keen rate watchers, like senior economist Bill Evans from Westpac, say the RBA has just one more rate cut left, to take the official overnight cash rate to 0.5 %.

After that, say a growing number of experts, rate cuts have no positive effects and plenty of negative unintended consequences. So, 0.5% is thought to be the “zero lower bound” or “effective lower bound” for interest rates.

“Certainly, with the [RBA] board targeting full employment, … and a move into the 2—3 per cent target zone for underlying inflation, it seems certain that the RBA will reach its effective lower bound before it achieves its objectives,” Mr Evans said.

Full employment is generally identified as around 4.5 per cent unemployment for the purposes of the RBA’s policy objectives. Unemployment is now 5.2 per cent and inflation is 1.6 per cent pa.

The RBA could cut rates by 0.25 per cent in December or the next meeting, the first RBA board meeting of 2020, on Tuesday 4th February 2020.

That would take the official Australian rate to 0.5 per cent, the effective lower bound.

After that, policy options like buying government bonds funded by new money or funding banks to lend to business, will be rolled out by the RBA, Bill Evans told The Australian.

The Melbourne Cup RBA board meeting is tradition that sometimes surprises the nation, just before the big race starts, with big announcements about interest rates. In 2008, the RBA cut rates by a massive 0.75 per cent on Melbourne Cup Day, just as the Global Financial Crisis spread around the world.

A year later rates were going up again on Melbourne Cup Day and again in 2010, only to be cut again on Cup Day in 2011.

But the last minutes of the RBA’s October board meeting revealed that the RBA board members are now concerned that rate cuts are not working to stimulate the economy.

The Westpac-MI Consumer Sentiment Index fell 5.5 per cent in October to its lowest level for four years.

Other economists are asking if rate cuts are stimulating the property market, without stimulating the economy.

GDP growth has slumped to 1.4 per cent, well under the government’s and the RBA’s forecasts. Meanwhile property prices in Melbourne and Sydney, in particular, are rallying over the last three months.

The median capital city house price is up 4.8 per cent in three months. Tax cuts and RBA rate cuts have combined to inject confidence into city property markets since June 2019.

There are now 11 variable rate home loan products listed on InfoChoice with advertised rates under 3 per cent pa.

The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. If you or someone you know is in financial stress, contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.

Notes:

Rates are headline rates at the time of publishing, not comparison rates, fees not included.

Rates based on owner-occupier, variable rate, principal and interest 25-year, $300,000 loan amount with a package.

Comparison rate is based on a secured loan of $150,000 over the term of 25 years.

WARNING: These comparison rates apply only to the example or examples given. Different amounts and terms will result in different comparison rates. Costs such as redraw fees or early repayment fees, and costs savings such as fee waivers, are not included in the comparison rate but may influence the cost of the loan


Tax cuts leave RBA on verge of unconventional policy
(22 October 2019)

Rate watchers are keenly awaiting the Reserve Bank’s Melbourne Cup Day board meeting in two weeks. The RBA has previously indicated it is prepared to cut rates further to support the economy but markets are betting against a move in November.

Unemployment is down slightly but expected to trend back up and recent tax cuts do not seem to be working. All this has the central bank here in Australia, and other banks around the world talking about the ‘extraordinary’ possibility of setting official rates to less than zero. Or even the experimental new policy lever called quantitative easing, known by some as ‘printing money.’

The Morrison government’s tax cuts have delivered no noticeable extra spending into the economy according to the minutes of the Reserve Bank board’s October meeting.

And three recent rate cuts have also had little or no economic effect.

“Members noted that there had not yet been evidence of a pick-up in household spending following the recent reductions in the cash rate and receipt of the tax offset payments,” read the RBA board minutes released last week.

“Although they acknowledged that it may be too early to expect any signs of pick up,” the board said in its minutes of the meeting.

The RBA is now expected to wait for more economic data before moving interest rates again. The next meeting of the RBA is on Melbourne Cup Day 5th November 2019.

Commonwealth Bank economists using transaction data from customers and Google trends said they had detected a disappointing downturn in consumer spending intentions.

The RBA board said retail sales remained subdued in July and car sales decreased in August.

RBA says rate cuts are working, negative rates unlikely

It is “extraordinarily unlikely” that Australia will adopt negative interest rates said Dr Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Speaking at the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) annual meeting in Washington, Dr Lowe said:

“I am not going to speculate on negative interest rates and quantitative in Australia, other than to say that negative interest rates are extraordinarily unlikely in my country.”

Quantitative easing refers to central bank asset buying from government or lending money to banks to inject money into the economy.

Australia needs negative interest rates of minus 1 per cent for the next few years if the RBA wants to kickstart the Australian economy and meet its inflation target, according to big Wall Street merchant bank and research house Goldman Sachs.

Alternatively, the RBA could stop rate cuts at zero or 0.25 per cent and spend $200 billion in quantitative easing, said Goldman Sachs.

That pessimistic view of the Australian economy is not shared by Dr Lowe who is generally positive. Dr Lowe said rate cuts are working and the mining sector is turning around from a contraction to a growth phase.

“The economy has been through a very soft patch over the past year but is actually gradually improving, lower interest rates are working.”

One piece of good news last week reinforced that positive message. Australia's unemployment rate fell to 5.2 per cent in September, from 5.3 per cent in August according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

That is still higher than February’s 4.9 per cent and well outside the RBA’s target for unemployment which is 4.5 per cent.

Job surveys suggest employment growth will slow into 2020 and the unemployment rate may rise.

Many bank economists, including Bill Evans from Westpac, are predicting the next RBA rate cut – to 0.5 per cent – will come in February 2020.

Mr Evans and others have forecast that the RBA will not cut the cash rate lower than 0.5 per cent.

At that very low level, rate cuts lose their effectiveness said Mr Evans and the RBA “may have to consider other policies” like “asset buying or loans to banks.”

The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. If you or someone you know is in financial stress, contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.

Too low for zero: will interest rates hit 0%? (8 October 2019)

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Phillip Lowe is reluctant to cut interest rates further following last Tuesday’s record rate cut.

Yet, with the government unlikely to increase spending, Lowe is in a tricky predicament, with the government placing a budget surplus ahead of jobs and growth.

Despite its reluctance, the RBA has no choice but to stimulate the economy and that could mean zero per cent (or even negative) interest rates on the horizon.

“[We are] prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy, full employment and the achievement of the inflation target over time,” Lowe said.

The top priority of the RBA is achieving a full employment level of 4.5 per cent. It wants businesses to hire staff; to reduce the number of unemployed (currently two million) who are seeking work.

Unemployment currently sits at 5.3 per cent – a 12 month high.

Lowe flagged a 0 per cent interest rate back in August when he told the government, “It’s possible we end up at the zero lower bound although I think it’s unlikely.”

Interest rates have dropped from 1.5 per cent in June 2019 to currently sit at 0.75 per cent. A further cut is expected at either the November meeting or on the first Tuesday in February 2020.

Which banks passed the rate cut on?


Cutting interest rates isn’t necessarily a panacea for the economy. As we have seen this past week, the big four banks are unlikely to pass on rate cuts in full. They certainly won’t be dropping their rates to zero or pay you for having your money with them.

Remember, banks are profit-making machines and have shareholders to satisfy. They want your money, but not at any cost.

The Commonwealth Bank cut its official rate by 0.13 per cent, while NAB and Westpac sliced off 0.15 per cent.

ANZ is lowering rates by between 0.14 percentage points for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest, and 0.25 percentage points for property investors with interest-only loans.

Meanwhile, smaller banks such as U Bank and Athena have passed the cuts on in full. Here’s a comparison of current rates.

However, don’t expect any of these banks to go to zero. It’s too low.

What else can the RBA do?

The RBA could pull a Quantitative Easing policy out of its bag of tricks.

What is QE / Quantitative Easing?

Quantitative Easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy. It’s the act of printing money to buy government bonds (debts), which are considered the safest form of investment because governments rarely go bankrupt.

The Australian government currently owes approximately $550 billion to investors who have bought Australian bonds.

QE has been used in the US and parts of Europe in recent years, most notably by Greece, during the global financial crisis (GFC).

It has a short-term impact, but little effect as interest rates head into negative territory. It could also over inflate the price of assets including housing.

The RBA has another option available as well – term funding.

What is term funding?

If the Reserve Bank adopted a term funding policy it would provide funding to banks at close to the official cash rate. This has proven successful in the UK, where they have passed on significant borrowing cost reductions to the real economy.

Both these alternatives are unlikely. Dr Lowe said these measures would only be considered, “If growth is very weak — it stays in the 1 per cent range for a longer period of time — the unemployment rate starts rising, wages growth doesn't pick up and inflation's falling short.”

In short, unconventional monetary policy is unlikely to be implemented.

So there is one more rate cut left int eh RBA’s bag of tricks. After that, it is difficult to determine what will happen.

What we do know is rates will be at their lowest in history (as they are now) and are likely to stay low for some time to come.


The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. If you or someone you know is in financial stress, contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.

RBA slashes interest rates to new record low (1 October 2019)

Jonathan Jackson
InfoChoice investment expert writer

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut interest rates from 1 per cent to a record low of 0.75 per cent in October 2019.

RBA meeting minutes suggested the decision to slash the rate further was due to weak domestic growth, increasing downside risks to global growth, stalled wages growth and a rising unemployment rate.

The cut is designed to stimulate Australia’s flagging economy, however there are doubts this move will have any impact. Certainly, there will be no impact at all if the banks don’t pass this cut on to consumers.

Whilst, the Federal Government is urging banks to reduce their rates, there is no guarantee they will, with many economists and financial commentators suggesting many consumers are unlikely to realise the full 0.75 per cent cut.

The big four banks passed on approximately 80 per cent of the previous cut but are expected to hold back more this time.

Which banks are passing on the RBA rate cut?

Nine Network Finance Editor Ross Greenwood postulated that “Banks are not likely to pass it on because their margins are being squeezed. Their margins are being squeezed as interest rates get closer to zero.”

His sage advice to consumers: find another bank if you are unhappy with your rate, or negotiate your current rate down.

InfoChoice CEO Vadim Taube is taking a realistic approach, but agrees margins are being squeezed.

“Some lenders will pass on all of this rate cut and some lenders will retain some or all of it.

“All the banks and other lenders are feeling the pressure of competition and low rates are squeezing their margins right now.

“The next few weeks are going to be great for comparing rates and finding a cheaper loan deal,” said Vadim Taube.

Sydney based online non-bank lender Athena has already passed on the full 0.25 per cent rate cut to owner occupiers and investors.

Athena’s new variable Owner Occupier P&I rate is 2.84 per cent pa (comparison rate 2.80 per cent pa). For investors, Athena’s new rate is 3.24 per cent pa (comparison rate 3.20 per cent pa).

Co-founder and CEO of Athena, Nathan Walsh said: “Saving customers money is at the core of Athena’s mission.

“By passing on all three of the RBA rate cuts immediately, we have been able to save our customers over $23 million over the life of their loans.”

“Customers are realising they don’t need to put up with a home loan provider that doesn’t pass on the savings when they can,” said Nathan Walsh.

Does Australia need more rate cuts?

Future Fund chairman and former Federal Treasurer, Peter Costello believes the economic impact of a rate cut on Australia’s economy will be minimal.

Mr Costello told a Yahoo Finance conference that he feels the current rate drop suggests an economic abnormality, particularly at a time when fundamentals don’t seem so bad: unemployment is 5.3 per cent, inflation is 1.6 per cent, the budget is “more-or-less balanced”, Australia has a trade surplus and a current account surplus.

During his time as Treasurer in the Howard government, these were reasonable statistics.

“If you would have said to me to think of an economy where the cash rate is 1 per cent and the long-term bond rate is 1 per cent, what sort of economy is that?” he said.

“I would say it’s an economy that’s never existed — we’ve never had 10-year money you can get for 1 per cent or less.

“If I had been forced to make a guess, I probably would have said to you that’s got to be a deep recessionary economy.

“Why else would you have interest rates at 1 per cent?”

Mr Costello says structural reform, not monetary policy is what is needed to breathe life into Australia’s economy.

How low can interest rates go?

Further rate cuts are expected.

AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver said, “We had thought that the low would be 0.5% but given the continuing weak outlook we now see the RBA ultimately cutting the cash rate to a low of 0.25 per cent with another cut around February next year.

“This will likely be the absolute bottom though as banks are unlikely to be able to pass on rate cuts beyond that point and negative rates are likely to be counterproductive.”

CommSec has also tweeted that it expects a further drop: More easing to come? The #RBA has cut interest rates today by 0.25% with expectations of another rate cut in early 2020 #ausbiz #ausecon

The graph below provides an interesting snapshot of how interest rates have declined since 2008 in comparison to the United States Federal Reserve policy:

What to expect?

A further rate cut is predicted, with another before February 2020.

It can’t go much lower than that, so it’s time for home-owners and borrowers to find the best deal for them. A home loan comparison calculator will help.

House prices are once again expected to rise, so now is the right time to compare rates.

Keep up to date with all the latest rate changes from lenders at InfoChoice Trending News.

The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. If you or someone you know is in financial stress, contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.

Donald Trump’s rate cuts coming to Aussie households in October (25 Sept. 2019)

Jason Bryce
InfoChoice Journalist & Content Manager

Donald Trump has been demanding rate cuts for months and he got one last week. And that US rate cut looks certain to flow through to Australian homebuyers, as soon as next Tuesday the 1st of October.

The monetary policy makers at the Reserve Bank of Australia have confirmed that they are monitoring rates in the USA and elsewhere and are likely to follow with Australian rate cuts that will flow through to homebuyers.

The President of the USA, Donald Trump unleashed a Twitter tirade starting in April and lasting months against the “boneheads” running the US Federal Reserve (America’s central bank) for not cutting interest rates sooner and further.

Mr Trump has consistently criticised the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell as “clueless” for keeping US interest rates slightly higher than global trading partners.

“The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less,” the president tweeted last week.

Jerome Powell’s federal reserve, like Australia’s RBA, is supposed to be independent of government interference and not subject to instructions from political leaders. The Federal reserve is required by government mandate to set monetary policy that will “foster maximum employment and price stability.” 

Nevertheless, the President has been piling on the pressure for lower rates.

“The USA should always be paying the the [sic] lowest rate,” the President tweeted.

“No Inflation! It is only the naïveté of Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn’t allow us to do what other countries are already doing,” Mr Trump continued in a long evening Twitter thread.

“A once in a lifetime opportunity that we are missing because of “Boneheads.”

Last week the US Federal Reserve delivered a 0.25 per cent rate cut to the Pesident and the US economy. The Federal Reserve target interest rate is now 1.75 – 2.0 per cent, still higher than in many other countries.

Last night in Armidale NSW, The Reserve Bank of Australia’s governor Dr Philip Lowe noted the US rate cut and raised expectations of an Aussie rate cut for next week.

“Almost all major central banks are expected to ease monetary policy over the year ahead,’ said Dr Lowe.

“The United States Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank having already moved in this direction.”

“Given that inflation is low – and forecast to remain low – investors are also expecting central banks to maintain very accommodative settings of monetary policy for years to come.

The Reserve Bank board “is prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy,” said Dr Lowe.

The official unemployment rate in Australia rose in August to 5.3 per cent, from 5.2 per cent in July according to data released last week from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. In the 12 months to June 2019, Australia’s GDP grew by 1.4 per cent, much slower than expected.

“We did not expect this slowdown, so it has come as a bit of a surprise,” said Dr Lowe

Slowly but surely, property prices head north (17 Sept. 2019)

Jonathan Jackson
InfoChoice investment expert writer

It has been the longest property downturn in decades, but sentiment in the property market looks to be improving.

That is certainly true of the Melbourne and Sydney markets. In July, house values in Sydney rose 0.2 per cent, whilst Melbourne grew by 0.1 per cent. Values of apartments in the two cities increased by 0.3 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively.

The Council of Financial Regulators noted the turnaround when they last met for their quarterly pow-wow.

The Council discussed signs of stabilisation in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets, evident in both housing prices and auction clearance rates.

However, they did note conditions in most other capital cities continue to be soft.

According to Domain, that trend will reverse.

The following table suggests modest growth in all capital cities in house price forecasts:

Factors driving the turnaround are the current strength of the labour market, low interest rates and the improvement in lending standards (as well as a slight softening of borrowing criteria).

This is no dead cat bounce

There are rumblings the current change in sentiment to one of cautious optimism is just temporary. There’s further prolonged pain on the horizon.

That false optimism is known as a dead cat bounce: a small, short-lived recovery in the price of a security or asset, before a continued downtrend kicks in.

There will always be doomsayers predicting the end of days for the property market, but really all signs point to the contrary.

The recovery looks legitimate.

A stable government and significant drops in interest rates are further influential reasons for slowly bringing people back to the market.

According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the value of new loans issued to households jumped 3.9 per cent to $32 billion in July. This was its sharpest increase in four-and-a-half years.

The ABS states the amount of money borrowed rose 5.3 per cent to $13.3 billion, from the previous month. Seasonally adjusted that is the strongest result since August 2015.

Other noteworthy statistics include the 4.2 per cent increase (32,427 in July) in the number of people taking out a mortgage to buy their next home. Market expectations were set at a 1.5 per cent increase – that’s a significant 2.7 per cent increase on what was expected.

Even first home buyers are re-entering the property market. ABS statistics show the number of loans to owner occupier first home buyers rose for the fourth consecutive month in July (up 1.3 per cent).

ABS Chief Economist, Bruce Hockman said: “In July, growth in new lending commitments to households was the strongest since October 2014.

“For the second month in a row there were particularly strong increases in the level of new lending commitments for owner occupier and investment dwellings. Despite this recent turn-around both series remain down from their respective peaks in 2017.”

Sentiment is once again north facing and it as if slowly, but surely the downturn is fading. It’s a good time to start comparing interest rates and benefits, whilst working out your borrowing power.

And let’s spare a thought for those who lost a little bit of value over the past few years. It’s not all bad. When you put this last downturn in perspective, house values are close to 50 per cent higher than at the start of the decade. That’s a solid return.

Compare the top home loan products from Australia’s banks, credit unions, building societies and non-bank lenders here.

The information contained on this web site is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation. You should consider whether the information is appropriate to your needs, and where appropriate, seek professional advice from a financial adviser. If you or someone you know is in financial stress, contact the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007.

Consumer confidence down but house prices up (11 September 2019)

By Jonathan Jackson
InfoChoice investment expert writer

House price and auction clearance rate data from July indicate a housing market revival is happening. However some economists are warning this could be a temporary recovery before the next substantial fall.

Usually, a recovery in the housing market indicates a rise in consumer confidence. However, today’s data from the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment runs contrary to that theory.


source: tradingeconomics.com

Consumer confidence is down 1.7 per cent to 98.2 in September 2019, swinging from a 3.6 per cent rise in August. The decline is due to pressure on family finances and concerns about the near-term outlook for the global economy. 

What is interesting is that the stimulants used by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Government to invite spending, seem to be having little or no impact.

With regard to the tax offset payments introduced by the government on 1 July, just over 16 per cent of consumers reported receiving a refund with just 29 per cent of those people planning to spend all of that money.

15 per cent of surveyed consumers planned to spend half the refund and a substantial 53 per cent, will put the extra cash towards savings.

The government was hoping that consumers would go forth and spend the extra cash but 61 per cent of Aussies surveyed by Westpac said the wisest place to put their savings was in deposits, superannuation or paying down debt.

“Many Aussies are confused about what to do with their money in the current environment,” CommSec chief economist Craig James said.

Employment is also a concern.

“These concerns about the state of the economy; the international backdrop; and employment are seeing consumers become more cautious about their finances,” the Westpac report states.

The unemployment rate is steady at 5.2 per cent, unchanged since July, and still higher than the RBA would like but employment is up.

But despite all these headwinds, confidence is returning to the housing market.

“Consumers’ house price expectations have continued to firm,” says the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of House Price Expectations Index.

The index posted a further 3.9 per cent rise in September to be up a spectacular 45.8 per cent since May. All major states recorded a lift in price expectations this month. Expectations posted a particularly strong 6.7 per cent gain in NSW.”

For homeowners and investors, that’s great news, especially when you consider that further stimulatory measures may be taken by the RBA when it meets on 1 October.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut rates next month by another quarter-point to 0.75 per cent.

There are pros and cons to that, but with interest rates so low, now may be the best time in a while to consider a home purchase, so start comparing home loans.

Is it too soon in the recovery to say Hallelujah to that?

Low rates locked in to support ailing Aussie economy (4 September 2019)

The Australian economy grew by 0.5 per cent in the June quarter and 1.4 per cent in the 2018/19 financial year, the lowest level of growth since the global financial crisis in 2008/2009.


source: tradingeconomics.com

The final outcome for GDP in 2018/19 was substantially under expectations. The federal government had predicted growth of 2.25 per cent for the year and based the federal budget around this number. The Reserve Bank of Australia expected growth of 1.8 per cent.

Investment in housing fell 4.4 per cent during the last three months with household expenditure ‘subdued’ according to the ABS.

Economic growth in Australia is being driven by mineral exports while the domestic economy is being supported by government spending, particularly investment in disability, aged and health care.

“Strength in mining related activity was seen across a number of measures,” said Bruce Hockman, chief economist for the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

“Growth in the domestic economy remains steady.”

Meanwhile other ABS data released this week showed that retail sales shrank in July.

The Reserve Bank of Australia board has left official rates unchanged at 1.00 per cent in September. The RBA board said “an extended period of low interest rates will be required” to reduce unemployment.

The RBA will “ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth in the economy.”

ASX 30-day Interbank Cash rate futures market trading indicates a 60 per cent chance of a rate cut by the RBA in October. The market currently expects the central bank to slice the official interest in Australia by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75 per cent at the next RBA board meeting on Tuesday 1 October.

rba chance of rate cut to 0.75% in October

RBA board minutes from the September meeting indicate low rates are here to stay for some time yet.

“It is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to make progress in reducing unemployment,” read the September board minutes.

“The Board will continue to monitor developments, including in the labour market, and ease monetary policy further if needed to support sustainable growth.”

Are interest rates going up or down? (22 August 2019)

While many economists are telling Aussies to expect more rate cuts, they may not arrive immediately.

Futures markets have priced in an 89 per cent expectation that the Reserve Bank will leave interest rates unchanged in September, up from around 50 per cent early last week.

The governor of the RBA, Dr Philip Lowe has signalled he is worried about a developing trade dispute between China and the USA. He described bullish trade war talk as “very worrying.”

“I do not have a clear idea of what strategy the US has,” said Dr Lowe.

And Chinese manufacturing is suffering, which could flow through to Australian mineral exports and jobs.

“No country has made itself wealthy and prosperous through protectionism,” said Philip Lowe. The US President Donald Trump jacked up the trade war rhetoric yesterday describing himself as “the chosen one” to take on China.

Read more about Donald Trump’s trade war and the impact it could have on your home loan at InfoChoice.

RBA says low rates are here to stay (6th August 2019)

The Reserve Bank board has left the official cash interest rate unchanged for August at 1.0 per cent.

A statement from the board noted increasing uncertainty in the global economy caused by trade and technology disputes as well as lower than expected economic growth in Australia in the first half of 2019.

The budgets of Aussie households are “weighed down” by low income growth and declining housing prices said the board.

Unemployment is up slightly to 5.2 per cent and inflation edged higher to 1.6 per cent.

Australians should expect a long period of low interest rates. The RBA board said:

“It is reasonable to expect that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to … reduce unemployment and [make] progress towards the inflation target.”

The Australian National University’s ‘RBA Shadow Board’ of nine respected economists has predicted a 33 per cent probability of more rate cuts and 38 per cent probability of rate increases over the remainder of 2019.

Australia's Current Interest Rate is 1.00%

The board of Australia’s government-owned central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets the Australian official cash interest rate (OCR) on the first Tuesday of each month, except January. 

InfoChoice tracks the RBA’s rate changes, reports changes within minutes of the RBA making an announcement and gives you the information you need to find the best mortgage and savings rates in Australia for your own circumstances.

The RBA cut interest rates on 2 July by 0.25 percentage points to 1.00 per cent. This follows a 0.25 percentage point cut in June.

Rising unemployment was cited in a statement from the RBA issued today as a key reason for this rate cut.

“There has … been little inroad into the spare capacity in the labour market recently, with the unemployment rate having risen slightly to 5.2 per cent,” said the RBA statement.

Over the last 12 months (to 31 March 2019), the RBA said the “Australian economy grew at … below-trend 1.8 per cent.”

“Consumption growth has been subdued, weighed down by a protracted period of low income growth and declining housing prices.”

What is the RBA’s official cash interest rate?

The OCR effectively sets the wholesale price of lending in Australia. When the RBA changes this rate, the banks and other lenders follow by changing their retail variable lending and savings interest rates. If the RBA puts the OCR up, your variable home loan and savings accounts rates will probably also rise. A cut in the OCR means your loan and account rates may also be cut.

The lowest variable rate home loans available in Australia are priced about two per cent above the RBA’s OCR. The lowest variable rate mortgages on offer from the big four banks start from about three per cent above the OCR.

The highest savings account rates in Australia are about one per cent over the OCR. 

Fixed rate home loan rates and term deposit rates are not based on the RBA’s OCR and do not follow movements in the official cash rate. 

The RBA operates independently of government and is charged with maintaining low unemployment and low inflation. When inflation falls or unemployment rises, the RBA may consider cutting rates. When unemployment falls, or inflation rises sharply, the RBA may consider raising rates.

Last Meeting: Tuesday 3 December 2019

Next RBA Meeting: Tuesday 4 February 2020

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