Sydney property market outlook for 2020
Sydney Auction Results for Saturday 14 March 2020
There were 644 residential property auctions held in Sydney on Saturday 14 March 2020. 70 per cent produced a sale, up from 49% on the same weekend last year, for a median sale price of $1,110,000 in preliminary results reported by Domain.
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Sydney Auction Results, Saturday 7 March 2020
There were 679 residential property auctions held in Sydney on Saturday 7 March 2020. 81 per cent produced a sale, up from 54% on the same weekend last year, for a median sale price of $1,238,000 in preliminary results reported by Domain.
Highlights of the weekend’s results included the $3.261 million sale by auction of the beachfront family home at 44 The Grand Parade, Brighton-Le-Sands, reported Domain.
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Sydney Property Market Update, 5 March 2020
The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates this week to 0.50%. All big four banks have passed on the cut, with Westpac moving the quickest.
RBA governor Philip Lowe said coronavirus is having a significant effect on the education and travel sectors.
“The uncertainty that it is creating is also likely to affect domestic spending. As a result, GDP growth in the March quarter is likely to be noticeably weaker than earlier expected.”
Dr Lowe noted “further signs of a pick-up in established housing markets” and said home prices in Australia are “rising in most markets, in some cases quite strongly.”
“Mortgage loan commitments have also picked up, although demand for credit by investors remains subdued.”
“Mortgage rates are at record lows and there is strong competition for borrowers of high credit quality.”
Sydney Auction results show booming summer market
There were 911 residential property auctions held in Sydney on Saturday 29 February 2020 with 77% producing a sale, up from 66% on the same weekend last year. The median price for properties sold was $1.285 million, reported Domain in preliminary results.
Auctions are becoming more common in Sydney and volumes of properties going to auction have increased significantly to rival Melbourne’s numbers in recent years.
Despite the increased volumes, clearance rates remain high and are improving, demonstrating a clear demand for Sydney property in March 2020.
Good news- stamp duty relief for NSW bushfire victims
The NSW Government announced this week that families and individuals whose properties have been destroyed or substantially damaged by bushfires will receive stamp duty relief if they buy a new home.
People buying replacement homes will only begin paying stamp duty once the amount payable exceeds $55,000, which will be on homes exceeding $1.25 million. The exemption will also be available retrospectively for victims who have already bought a house during the bushfire season.
The move was welcomed by The Housing industry Association (HIA).
“The Housing industry Association (HIA) welcomes the NSW governments announcement it will provide stamp duty relief for those people who have been directly impacted by the tragic bushfires that have swept across the state”, Executive Director NSW HIA David Bare said.
“HIA fully supports the NSW Government getting behind those who have been displaced in this bushfire emergency.
“Taxes and such as stamp duty, are a major impediment to people buying their own home and by significantly reducing these fees people will be able to get into a new house sooner and hopefully get their lives back on track with as little angst as possible.
“When you have to pick up and start again the prospect can be made even more daunting by hidden costs and taxes.
“At a time of great hardship for those affected, it’s the eliminating costs that add to suffering that count the most, this move will go some ways to alleviating that suffering,” concluded Mr Bare.
Are Sydney house prices headed up or down in 2020?
The Sydney property market has been in the doldrums for a few years, but for the first time since July 2017, consumer sentiment seems to be picking up and analysts largely share this optimism.
In November 2019, Sydney’s property market had its first growth since July 2017; admittedly this was only 0.1 per cent, but it’s a sign that the decline has probably slowed and that things are on the up.
Sydney real estate in 2020: Cautious optimism
Anyone looking to invest, buy or sell in Sydney might still feel a bit cautious, but the general outlook now is that relaxed lending measures and historically low interest rates have combined to make people feel more secure and optimistic, especially when it comes to lending and borrowing.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has reduced the minimum interest rate serviceability buffer from its current seven per cent. This gives banks more leeway to offer larger loans to buyers.
There’s also the relatively new comprehensive credit reporting system that includes positive data, such as timely bill and debt payments, rather than just “black” marks. This gives lenders more information and flexibility for when they make decisions.
What do experts say about Sydney property in 2020?
With all these factors considered, the tide may be changing.
Let's take a look at what the property market experts are saying about 2020.
With all these factors in play, the scene is set for a rebound in 2020. Here’s what some of the leading property market analysts and economists have to say.
Domain expects the Sydney market to stay stable at the very least in 2020. There may even be a small rise in prices – two per cent for both houses and apartments.
The growth will be small but steady, with the relaxed lending conditions helping a great deal.
CoreLogic and Moody's Analytics are not quite so optimistic, expecting houses in the state capitals to fall by 7.7 per cent and units by 4.3 per cent.
Units, in fact, may continue to decline even after houses have stabilised and picked up.
In particular, Moody’s warns buyers about the Ryde area in North West Sydney which they say could fall by as much as 15.8 per cent throughout the next couple of years. This opinion seems like something of an outlier as North Ryde, Eastwood and Top Ryde are strong economic centres.
BIS Oxford Economics sees a rebound of the Sydney property market due to an increase in house building. The new supply will mean less competition for new properties and dampen prices a bit.
Nevertheless, BIS expects a six per cent growth in house prices and a one per cent rise in unit prices before 2022.
Sell or Hold predicts a prolonged trough in property prices, followed by a plateau with almost no real growth over the next two or three years. This is still better than a continued decline, however, especially for buyers, even if it’s not great news for investors just yet.
QBE also sees an end to the decline in 2020. Its Australian Housing Outlook says that the Sydney property market will bottom out by the end of 2020 and come to rest for a while at 11 per cent below the market high of 2017.
It seems 2020 is a year for reflection and recovery. The following year, however, is set to be brisk and upwards–looking. By June of 2020, rental growth and yields should start to rise and median house prices will see $1,090,000 and unit prices to average at $745,000.
After a decline in price during 2019, 2020 should give us no overall growth, either in houses or apartments, with 2021 seeing a 2.3 per cent rise in houses and a 1.4 per cent rise in apartments.
Where is the Sydney property market heading?
Although there are a few common trends, it's clear that there isn't really one clear perspective as to how the Sydney property market will change over the course of 2019/20.
While most analysts welcome the relaxed lending conditions and lowered interest rates, they seem torn between predicting a plateau and rather modest growth.
That said, even a period of stasis is preferable to continuing falls, even for investors, who may still be able to find opportunities in the hot Sydney suburbs (as long as they’re prepared to wait it out for a year or three…).
Which Sydney suburbs are best for property investors?
While static prices, low interest rates and a suddenly–generous lending environment are great news for people looking to buy a home, they’re not so good for property investors. The low interest rates are, of course, but if there’s not much of a return in the immediate future, things could be a bit slow. Having said that, there are a few Sydney suburbs that could present investment opportunities.
The best growth rates have occurred in Sydney’s north west and inner west regions, with 9.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent rises. If you’re looking for a quick opportunity, then you could do much worse than look around in these areas.
There should also be some promising movement in the North Shore and Eastern suburbs, while Parramatta and Liverpool are slowly coming back to life. North Parramatta and Auburn have median prices of $528,000 and $560,000, so could be good to buy into.
Blacktown is also a good bet if you’re looking for somewhere that’s under $1,000,000. This suburb’s median price is $665,000 for houses and $460,000 for units, with rental values of $425 and $405 per week.
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